S&P 500 Forecast From Oct 15, 2012 - Market Moves based on Tax Plans of Obama vs Romney ! (Expected Trading Range: 1352 - 1566)
Oct 12, 2012 - S&P 500 closed today at 1428.59 which is about 32 points down compared to last week close of 1460.93 on Oct 05, 2012. S&P 500 was trading between 1425.53 and 1460.93 which is a swing of about 35 points.
Last Week Analysis - CEO to Employees and Tax Plans of Obama Vs Romney
No matter what, Fed has already created the credit bubble by keeping the interest rate low for about 4 years. And this credit bubble will burst; this is going to be a very surprise and another disaster to the economy. The american workforce dropped to the lowest level in 31 years. Market is getting ready to crash! But the only question is whether it will happen immediately before or immediately after the US presidential election. Porlonged rate cuts helped to create new Jobs and reduce the unemployment news. Which in turn becomes negative on increasing the interest rate that is not positive for the market. In another look, market will not care about increasing the interest rate.
Here is the link to the news of Westgate Resorts CEO David Siegel email to 7000 employees regarding his support to Mitt Romney.
It mainly discusses the increasing tax rates for the wealthiest by obama administration. Those wealthiest people have significant influence on the stock market and so any news about chances for winning for Obama is going to push the market down until the election. When the weekly unemployment claims fall last week, market has started going down since it might support winning of Obama.
US will hold presidential elections on Nov 06, 2012
With respect to US long term treasury prices, TLT closed today at 123.97 which is a decent recovery from the last week close of 121.15. TLT reached its all time high point of 132.21 on July 25, 2012. In the short time, TLT may make a siginificant upward move. So if you are trading on US treasuries in the short term, it is a good time to take long position on US treasuries.
Last Week Low: 1425.53
Last Week High: 1460.93
If you are a medium or long term conservative investors,
1. Initate short position on US treasuries.
2. Liquidate your long positions on Stocks and convert them to cash (US$)
For Speculators and Intraday Players - Bet on Volatility
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed today at 16.14 which a decent recovery from the last week close of 14.33. The strong slump in VIX in the recent past signals that market does not have any fear but VIX is going to make a powerful upmove. Still fundamentally the US market is very week due to unemployment and slumping house prices along with US debt downgrade. Always fundamental wins in the long run. You can consider taking long positios on VIX also.
Only if you are day trader, you can have the following options:
1. Buy 1X OTM call option and 2X OTM put option - Long Strip.
2. Long Stocks and stop loss orders
3. Long Stocks with long put options
Note: OTM - means Outside the money.
Next Resistance Levels:
strong resistance level at: 1433.06 set on Aug 03, 2007
strong resistance level at: 1440.70 set on Nov 23, 2007
strong resistance level at: 1453.55 set on Sep 07, 2007
strong resistance level at: 1500 - crazy market move
strong resistance level at: 1,530.23 set on May 30, 2007 (first closing high after dot com bubble)
strong resistance level at: 1,552.87 set on Mar 24, 2000 (all time high during dot com bubble)
strong resistance level at: 1,565.15 set on Oct 09, 2007 (all time high during housing buble before sub prime crisis)
Next Support Levels:
strong support level at: 1425.73 set 50 Days EMA.
strong support level at: 1364.04 set by 200 Days EMA.
strong support level at 1189.40 set on Nov 26, 2010
strong support level at 1119.46 set on Aug 08, 2011
minor support level at 1064.59 set on Aug 27, 2010
strong support level at 1022.58 set on Jul 02, 2010
strong support level at 1036.18 set on Oct 30, 2009
strong support level at 946.21 set on Jun 12, 2009
strong support level at 827.37 set on Sep 27, 2002
strong support level at 683.38 set on Mar 06, 2009
strong support level at 638.73 set on Jul 19, 1996 - Might see this number again when completing double dip bottom.
Posted on Oct 14, 2012