S&P 500 Forecast From Nov 26, 2012 - Market would continue to recover from Oversold Condition!
(Expected Trading Range: 1374 - 1429)
Nov 23, 2012 - S&P 500 closed today at 1409.15 which is about 49 points up compared to last week close of 1359.88 on Nov 16, 2012. S&P 500 was trading between 1359.88 and 1409.16 which is a swing of about 50 points.
To watch S&P 500 Index in MSN finance, visit the following link:
S&P 500 Index in MSN Finance
Last Week Analysis - Market got Thanksgiving Sales Boost!
US Stock Market Indices recovered strongly during holiday shortened thanksgiving week. Since the market is oversold in the short term and people are ready to do shopping for the famous Black Friday Sale.
Since equities started bouncing off, US long term treasury prices moved down. TLT closed today at 124.30 compared to the last week close of 126.36. TLT reached its all time high point of 132.21 on July 25, 2012. In the short time, TLT may make a siginificant upward move. So if you are trading on US treasuries in the short term, it is a good time to take long position on US treasuries.
Last Week Low: 1359.88
Last Week High: 1409.16
If you are a medium or long term conservative investors,
1. Initate short position on US treasuries.
2. Liquidate your long positions on Stocks and convert them to cash (US$)
For Speculators and Intraday Players - Bet on Volatility
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed today at 15.14 which is significant loss compared to the last week close of over 18. Now the market is not showing any fear compared to post election, but still VIX is going to make a powerful upmove Since fundamentally the US market is very week due to unemployment and slumping house prices along with US debt downgrade. Always fundamental wins in the long run. You can consider taking long positios on VIX also.
Only if you are day trader, you can have the following options:
1. Buy 2X OTM call option and 1X OTM put option - Long Strap.
2. Long Stocks and stop loss orders
3. Long Stocks with long put options
Note: OTM - means Outside the money.
Next Resistance Levels:
strong resistance level at: 1408.45 set 50 Days EMA.
strong resistance level at: 1433.06 set on Aug 03, 2007
strong resistance level at: 1440.70 set on Nov 23, 2007
strong resistance level at: 1453.55 set on Sep 07, 2007
strong resistance level at: 1500 - crazy market move
strong resistance level at: 1,530.23 set on May 30, 2007 (first closing high after dot com bubble)
strong resistance level at: 1,552.87 set on Mar 24, 2000 (all time high during dot com bubble)
strong resistance level at: 1,565.15 set on Oct 09, 2007 (all time high during housing buble before sub prime crisis)
Next Support Levels:
strong support level at: 1374.77 set by 200 Days EMA.
strong support level at 1189.40 set on Nov 26, 2010
strong support level at 1119.46 set on Aug 08, 2011
minor support level at 1064.59 set on Aug 27, 2010
strong support level at 1022.58 set on Jul 02, 2010
strong support level at 1036.18 set on Oct 30, 2009
strong support level at 946.21 set on Jun 12, 2009
strong support level at 827.37 set on Sep 27, 2002
strong support level at 683.38 set on Mar 06, 2009
strong support level at 638.73 set on Jul 19, 1996 - Might see this number again when completing double dip bottom.
Posted on Nov 25, 2012