Nifty Mar 2011 Technical Forecast - Update 2

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Mar 16, 2011 - Nifty Closed today at 5511.15 which is up by 3.336% for month to date (compared to Feb 28th 2011 Close of 5,333.25).

With reference to my earlier update , There are 3 days in intraday in which Nifty touched its 200 days EMA of 5568.10. Those 3 days are Mar 03, 04 and 09. There is enough retesting of 200 days EMA is done in the last two weeks.

To watch Nifty Index in google finance, visit the following link:

NSE Index in Google Finance

Now Nifty is trading with range bound between its 21days EMA and 200 days EMA that would be 5482.50 and 5560.68. I think Nifty will eventually regain its support level of 200 days EMA and creates euphoria between the investors before it leads to panic selling.

Nifty in the coming weeks

As Nifty has strongly retested its 200 days moving average support level, it is vulnerable for steep pull back all the way down to 4800 range any time. It would not happen overnight, but there would be wild swings in either direction and Nifty will end up in reaching the intermediate bottom. It is OK to buy when Nifty reaches around 4800 range. A significant rally would happen once Nifty has reached this point.

Any rally happening in the coming days in Nifty would be considered as exit point from the market and slowly accumulate a new short positions in the long terms.

Intra Day traders can go with long position with a stop loss or by hedging (but protective put options). I have already mentioned that I am bearish on Nifty on the long term view, even my short term looks bull sign.

Technical Indicators

10 days EMA: 5484.17
21 days EMA: 5482.60
50 days EMA: 5573.38
200 days EMA: 5560.68

Next Resistance Levels:

200 days EMA: 5560.68
50 days EMA: 5573.38

Next Support Levels:

strong support level at 5402.40 set on Aug 31 2010
strong support level at 4806.75 set on May 25, 2010
strong support level at 4718.00 set on Feb 05, 2010